Money Morning Archive March 2009

If you flip through a recent annual report of any of South Africa’s heavyweight construction companies you’ll probably stumble across a chapter titled “Project Middle East.” Through 2007 and 2008 chief executives smiled broadly as they added lucrative Middle East tenders to their order books.

Before today, the MSCI World market index had risen for eight days in a row - the longest run of gains since 2006. So there’s no doubt a bounce is underway. But is it the real turning point? Not the way I read it. The current rebound may run for a little longer. But long-term, share prices could still have much further to fall...

Money Morning PRESENTS: There has been a lot of drama regarding AIG this week, and an ordinary person would look at these facts and pronounce the same judgment as the capitalist market: AIG and Fannie both deserve to go broke. But give him enough higher education in the economics department, or a job in government, and the fool rushes in - with someone else's money.

What was your response to the surge on global equity markets last week? Did you join the throng of ecstatic market commentators as they buried the bear – or did you smile knowingly as the term “dead cat bounce” flitted through your subconscious? Considering a leaked memo from ailing Citibank triggered the recovery we hope you answered the latter.

General Electric spooked investors with a dividend cut as its ‘shadow banking’
system came under strain. And it won’t be the only one, says Cris Sholto Heaton.

Money Morning Presents: You expect investment people (like any other salesperson) to talk their books. So most of the time you can take fund managers’ comments on the market with a big heap of salt, particularly if they sound optimistic. But recently, increasing numbers of very respectable people with good track records have been arguing that shares are cheap...

Money Morning PRESENTS: This week marks the two-year anniversary of the financial crisis. It was on the 12th of March 2007 that New Century Financial, one of the biggest subprime lenders in the United States, sprang a leak. Trading in its shares was halted as the company headed to bankruptcy. Bill Bonner explores...

We don’t envy Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni one bit. He’s stuck between the proverbial ‘rock’ and ‘hard place’ where interest rates are concerned. If he calls an emergency Monetary Policy Committee meeting and cuts rates by 100 basis points the pundits will scream “it’s not enough!”

Eastern Europe is in serious trouble – and the eurozone’s not much better off. Can the euro survive? John Stepek and Jody Clarke report.

“The trend is your friend,” rings an oft-repeated snippet from the world of market lore. It suggests all you have to do to make money is base your buy and sell decisions on the prevailing market direction. What this useful anecdote doesn’t reveal is when an established trend ends and a new one begins. And we can think of two more ‘trend’ problems for you to ponder.

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