Money Morning Archive October 2009

Looking at the broader investment environment, it’s clear the rally we’ve seen since the beginning of March has helped markets shake off the blues. The Dow Jones, for example, has run up 47.32%.

The Angolan oil minister, Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos, reckons that $75-$80 a barrel is the optimum level for both consumers and producers. We’ll come back to that view in a moment. But he’s also worried.

Have you ever wondered what would have happened if the government didn't step in to bail out every well- connected, "too-big-to-fail" institution on Wall Street?

How can you tell when an economic recovery is underway? Economists look at an array of macroeconomic indicators – market analysts focus on share price movements – but you probably take a quick peek at your personal financial statements.

With the South African rand gaining almost 29% against the US dollar, 19% against the euro and 18% against the pound sterling, the local currency is turning out to be one of the world’s strongest currencies for the year to date. Many potential investors are asking if it’s a good time to increase international exposure.

It’s getting harder to generate a decent, relatively safe income from stocks. On the one hand, share prices have risen sharply from their March lows, driving down yields. On the other, the threat of cuts to dividend payouts hasn’t gone away.

The maestro himself, Sir Alan Greenspan, has declared a recovery underway in the United States. The same man who didn't see the world's biggest financial bubble until it exploded in his face. This revelation seals the deal for Bill Bonner: the country is clearly not recovering.

South Africa’s long-term economic recovery hinges on a turnaround in the developed world. This means you will see the first signs of economic improvement in the US economic indicators.

They didn’t have a lot of choice. Or at least, they felt they didn’t. Ireland is in a deep hole right now. Apart from pretty-much bankrupt countries like Iceland, Ireland is the developed economy which has suffered the worst in the financial crisis. And the last thing the Irish felt like doing was embracing wholesale change, which might make things even worse.

The US dollar is the world’s biggest, most important currency. Yet for years, it’s proven to be one of the worst possible places to store your wealth. And in the long-term, its prospects don’t look at all healthy.

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