Money Morning Archive November 2009

Is there a bubble in the gold market? Must be, says one reader. Just turn on the TV during the day and you’ll see hours and hours of ads from agencies offering to buy gold from you – pop it in an envelope, send it off, and next thing you know you’ll get back an envelope full of cash.

We had another good week for gold last week, as it climbed momentarily above $1,150 an ounce. The strength and speed of this move is surprising even me. They say the hardest thing about riding a bull market is staying on. The bull will always try to throw you off. There are many who have not been as exposed to this move as they would have liked. Some have missed it altogether.

Recent stock market gains will quickly disappear if earnings don’t come to the party. An earnings underpin is essential for current high stock valuations. Thus the major concern for stock market investors is whether we’ve seen the worst – in terms of results – from companies operating in the mining, finance and retail sectors?

In a recent report, Marc Farber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, highlighted the negative correlation between equity investment and cash deposits – especially foreign currency holdings. He claims that if the dollar falls, equities will soar. And so far he’s spot on. The greenback has slid 4.9% against a basket of six major currencies this year. The 19-commodity Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index climbed 10%.

On August 31st, we saw the peak for the year in the Japanese stock market. The Nikkei 225 hit its 2009 high at 10,767. Then in mid-September, the Toronto Stock Exchange made its 2009 peak. Next it was the Australian Stock Exchange, which peaked in mid-October at 4,897. The French and German exchanges followed a few days later. Yet last week the US indices and the FTSE 100 somehow made it to new highs, albeit by just a few points. How can this be?

“The spring has sprung, the grass is rizz, I wonder where them birdies is?” This was Ashburton MD, Peter Bourne’s reply when Leon Kok asked how the markets are fairing. There’s no question that the second and third quarters of 2009 have seen fantastic growth in markets across the globe.

If there’s one piece of investment wisdom that almost everyone knows, it’s that you should invest against the crowd. Trouble is, because everyone knows it, everyone from fund managers to the bloke down the pub claims to be a ‘contrarian’ - even if their portfolio is little more than a mirror of the FTSE 100 index.

Twenty years ago...the Berlin Wall came down. This marked the end of the greatest controlled experiment in economics ever conducted. What did economists learn?

It’s tough at the top. Chief executives at large companies earn big money but they have to pack their bags if things go awry… Or do they?

Most of us know it’s a great time to buy. So, what’s the problem?

All Content. Copyright © 2010. Fleet Street Publications Pty (Ltd)

Footer Menu

Disclaimer: All material on this site is provided for information only and may not be construed as medical or financial advice or instruction. The information and opinions provided on this site are believed to be accurate and sound, based on the best judgment available to the authors, but readers who fail to consult with appropriate authorities assume the risk of any injuries or losses. The publisher is not responsible for errors or omissions.