Money Morning Archive January 2010

Do you believe everything you read in the financial press? Are you among the investors lapping up stories of the imminent house price recovery and remarkable vehicle sales turnaround?

We mentioned yesterday how any hint of disappointment from China could have a nasty impact on the markets this year. As if to prove the point, markets took a slide as China decided to tighten up its monetary policy. Meanwhile, the dollar rose and gold fell as an executive at one of China’s sovereign wealth funds suggested that the dollar had bottomed and that gold looks a bit dear.

At least, that’s what people think. And who can blame them? China is now the biggest car market in the world, surpassing the US. It’s also the world’s biggest exporter, surpassing Germany. It’s down to the clever way they run their economy, so China fans say. Not for them the vagaries of market capitalism. Command capitalism, where the state tells the banks what to do and who to lend to, is a much better model.

There must be some dark corner of Hell warming up for modern, mainstream economists. They helped bring on the worst bubble ever... with their theories of efficient markets and modern portfolio management. They failed to see it for what it was. Then, when trouble came, they made it worse.

That trade worked out pretty well, as you probably already know...and it may continue to do a lot better yet. But this is a new decade...and Bill has a new trade for it. That's what today's reckoning is all about.

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