Money Morning Archive February 2010

It's Goldman this. And Goldman that. And Goldman rhymes with greed. But it's "Thank you, Mr. Blankfein," when it's money that you need.

The year was 1975. New York City was in financial trouble. It had to borrow to pay its operating expenses. And lenders were getting tough. So Mayor Abe Beame turned to Washington, begging for a bailout. But America still had a vestigial sense of financial integrity back then.

As we page through the weekend financial press we can’t suppress a feeling of unease. Where is the ‘feel good’ economic news to underpin the 17-plus price-to-earnings valuation on the JSE All Share index? Market commentators dismiss our concerns with promises of 25% per annum earnings growth in FY2010 and 2011. The problem is this growth comes off a very soft base! If any of South Africa’s resources stalwarts post disappointing numbers you can expect the current valuation to go up in smoke!

Last week was just like 2008 again. The FTSE 100 was up 2.5% on the week by mid-Wednesday, only to fall by almost 5% before Friday’s close. There were plenty of things to blame the poor performance on. We had some poor jobless figures in the US. Then of course there’s the fast-growing eurozone debt crisis. Greece might be in the biggest mess, but other borrowers in the region are also coming under the microscope.

Last August, it was reported that deflation in Japan had reached a new record. Prices were dropping at the fastest pace 38 years. By November, it was duration, rather than depth, that got the press's attention. Prices had been going down for 10 months in a row.

If capital growth is your goal then take a leaf out of Shaun Le Roux’s book. His fund, the PSG Alphen Growth Fund, over 12 months, holds pole position out of 65 other funds in its sector and manages to come in 6th out of 454. In fact, at the end of November 2009 he was up 40.9% – Easily out performing the JSE All Share Index.  And what makes it truly spectacular is that he has not loaded up on risk as through out 2009 his majority holding were solid blue chips.
What’s his secret?

It’s been one hell of a year. This time last year, investors were recovering from the shock of having almost half their wealth invested in the stock market wiped out. We found ourselves staring down the barrel of a “fear driven” market. And while many were wary of getting their feet wet, those who jumped in were handsomely rewarded for their courage.

There are at least three big things that markets are fretting about just now. There are the potential new banking rules in the US. There’s China’s economy and its general direction - will the authorities tighten too fast or too slow? And then there’s Greece.

Where we are now is a matter of great debate: Are we in recovery? Or is the depression deepening?
No one knows for sure. Investors stumble around in the dark, bumping into data and knocking over lamps. It would be nice if someone would turn on the lights. But that's not how it works.

All Content. Copyright © 2010. Fleet Street Publications Pty (Ltd)

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