Money Morning Archive July 2010

The swindle no longer works.

“You can take your loans and shove them,” he Hungarian economic minister, György Matolcsy, did not say. But that’s what he was thinking. Watch out.

Towards the middle of last year analysts were upbeat about prospects for local equities. They spoke with a single voice about fantastic value opportunities during the early stages of the economic recovery. But they repeated a common warning too.

I don't like the action I am seeing in stock markets at all.

I've been saying since mid- to late-April that these are traders' markets. I know I'm starting to sound like a scratched record.

China is now the world's biggest energy user.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that China consumed 2,252m tonnes of oil equivalent in 2009. That compares to 2,170m tonnes used by the US in the same year.

 

When ‘too much’ suddenly is not enough.

Imagine the face of Lt George Morris. On 8 March, 1862, his ship, the USS Cumberland, found itself a victim of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called ‘creative destruction’. The creativity came in the form of a revolutionary new technology, iron-clad ships.

South Africa’s major exporters have a severe case of rand rage. Their efforts to flog goods and services in Europe, the United States and even China are being blocked on two fronts – by soft demand in the wake of recession, and an unnaturally strong rand.

The fundamental case for investing in grains is compelling.

There's the world's ever-growing population, all of whom need to eat. In particular, there are the expanding middle class populations of Asia, all expecting better diets. It takes a lot of grain to rear a cow, chicken or pig.

Let's assume for the moment that all the talk of a double-dip recession will translate into the real thing.

What's likely to happen? Well, another dose of quantitative easing – or money printing as we like to call it – seems the most likely reaction.

Et tu, Yankee?

Paul Krugman, Martin Wolf and the other big spenders are remarkably resilient. And cunning. On their advice, the world’s governments put up as much as four years’ worth of the entire planet’s savings to bring about a ‘recovery’. On the evidence of the last couple of weeks, it didn’t work. 

 
Thousands of prospectors rushed to the Witwatersrand after gold was discovered there in March 1886. They begged, borrowed and stole to stake their claims in a dusty triangle known as Ferreira’s Camp – and were soon burrowing into the earth in search of one of the richest gold reefs in the world. A few fortunes were made, but thousands more were destroyed and summarily dumped with the rest of the mine tailings. Even in the late 19th Century fortune favoured those with money.

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