Stockmarket Sleuth Archive November 2009

The feeling on the US markets at the moment is that we’re facing a rare opportunity to safely invest in “risky” assets. Rates are low, inflation risk is subdued and there are surprising earnings out of almost every sector. The fundamentals are strong and long-term investors should keep the faith. We’re going to ride this money wave all the way to the beach.

Yesterday, I had lunch with Guy Algeo, one the directors at Imara SP Reid. And, out of all the macro views I’ve come across lately his is the most persuasive. Before I tell you about it I think you need to hear a bit of background on Guy’s business. Imara SP Reid is one on the most established brokerages in Southern Africa – it’s been around since 1938 and offers the kind of specialist broking that even the big banks can’t match.

There’s nothing I hate more than analysts who open their discussion by earnestly looking the gathered crowd in the eyes and saying: “The markets have reached an important point in the recovery/downturn/bull/bear, and, in fact, I must solemnly tell you that, at this point, it could go either way.” Really? Is that so? I had to drive all the way to Pretoria for your insightful comment that the market may go up or down?

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