What to do when hyperbole becomes reality
Money Morning | 30 August, 2010
Dear reader,
It’s tough to get your head around what’s happening on the markets at the moment. Since September 2008, we’ve been battling our way through the chaos. Each time it looks like we’re finally picking ourselves out of the dirt, something else happens that shows we’re no where closer to a new bull trend. It’s no wonder really that investors are scared of taking risks.
Take the past two months, for example. The markets in July performed phenomenally with the JSE Alsi up 9.77% over the month. And then it fell apart! Come August, the market had fallen 4.53% and the month isn’t even over yet. I’m sure you’re wondering what’s causing this rollercoaster movement. The answer, quite simply, is there’s more and more evidence that, despite all the stringent quick-fix strategies in place, we’re really not fixing anything.
Today, market-watcher extraordinaire, Erin Beale discusses the changing markets and what you need to do to protect yourself today.
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It’s a cruel, crazy mixed-up world we’re living in today…
Think back for a moment to 2005, at the height of America’s real estate bubble.
When the house down the street was snatched under contract within hours of being on the market, for five times what the owner paid just a few years before… When the banks were handing out mortgages like they were free toasters… When Ma and Pa turned into house- flipping overnight millionaires… When everyone was living high on the proverbial hog…
If we’d told you then that in just a few short years - on September the 16th 2008 to be precise - big banking giants Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, AIG and Merrill Lynch would come crashing down all at once... would you have believed us? If we’d had insisted that in one fell swoop, a banking-induced global economic crisis would reach pandemic proportions and would prompt the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to warn the world hindered on "brink of systemic meltdown"?
How about if we’d told you in back then that the American car market would siphon billions in bailouts from the government... or that we'd see triple-digit oil prices?
More recently, what if we’d said to you on the 5th of May 2010, that the next day the market would take a devastating 1,000-point dive for seemingly no reason?
My bet is, you wouldn't have believed us if we’d warned you of events like these. In fact, you might have laughed in my face and mumbled something about Chicken Little as you walked away.
But as you and I both know... these seemingly crazy events did happen.
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All bets are off…
In our unique niche of the publishing industry, we're accustomed to headlines that shout from the rooftops that the sky is falling down. As a Money Morning reader, you're used to our very strong (and often negative!) predictions.
And we definitely catch some flack from some of the more traditional "fair and balanced" publishing mainstream. They likely scoff at our "outlandish" claims.
But the truth is, many times these so-called wild predictions do come to fruition. And you need to be prepared.
Our founder Bill Bonner calls these events – the exceedingly unlikely hyperboles that quickly become catastrophic truths – "fat tails". Bill noted that "in the run-up to the year 2000, Americans rated the odds of system-wide computer failure first at zero... and then, after a Y2K failure was discussed in the media, as high as 50%."
Most people live – and invest – in the comfort of "normalcy." But on some level, they know that the future might not go so predictably. They know there is a chance, even as small as it seems, that they could lose their shirt completely... or score that elusive 1,000% gain.
Are you ready for our shocking predictions?
The fact is, the world has changed dramatically. The markets have changed. The wealth-building strategies we need to employ have changed (though their principals remain the same).
Stocks that used to be the quintessential "widows and orphans" companies can no longer be relied on for safety. Heck, if you need proof of that, look no further than American "staples" like GE and GM.
So, as all our Fleet Street Publications' analysts eerily agree, the only solution for savvy investors is to take matters into their own hands. To be the captains of their own ships, so to speak.
You can't rely on anyone else to make financial decisions for you any longer - that's partly how this market mess came about to begin with! You can't rely on unit trust fund managers to make the right decisions for you. Your broker, like it or not, has an agenda. And as we've seen all too clearly, banks can fail.
And at times, you must be willing to suspend all disbelief.
We firmly believe that you must control your own financial destiny. And our collective brain gives you excellent tools to learn how to do this - to teach you to steer your ship yourself.
And we're here to guide you every step of the way.
Here’s to your financial freedom,
Karin Iten and Erin Beale
For Money Morning
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