Highlights in this issue:

*** The real reason you should avoid highly geared firms…
*** The #1 survival skill of a solid company…
*** The value of “goodwill”…

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From the pen of Karin Iten…

Dear Investment Academy Reader,

In these uncertain times, investors keep being told to look for strong balance sheets before buying a share. But what does a strong balance sheet look like? Today, MoneyWeek strategist Tim Bennett tells you what to watch out for are…

1. Low debt

In a bull market, debt can be very useful. Say you take R200 of your own money and R800 borrowed from a bank to buy an asset worth R1,000. It doubles in value to R2,000.

You could sell it, repay the R800 and pocket R1,200. That means you’ve multiplied your opening stake of R200 by six times.

But in a recession the downside becomes apparent. Suppose a R1,000 asset falls to R500. You still owe the bank R800. Sell the asset and you’ll wipe out your R200 equity and still owe R300.

Why is this important? Well basically, it shows you that companies with high net borrowing to equity – “gearing” – are vulnerable if loans are called in. They’re also unlikely to be able to afford to buy cheap assets in a slump. So while some sectors, such as utilities (where firms have substantial assets and good cash flows), can stomach high debt, as a rule of thumb, low gearing is best.

2. Control over working capital

Retailers such as Pick ‘n Pay and Woolworths are lucky – customers pay them well before they have to pay their suppliers. But in other sectors a survival skill is managing stocks, debtors (“receivables”) and creditors (“payables”). Buy too much stock, give customers too long to pay, or pay suppliers too soon, and even a profitable business can run out of cash.

So check the length of the “working capital cycle”. Say a company’s average stock level (opening + closing stock from the balance sheet divided by two) is R500m and the cost of sales is R3.50bn. That means the stock cycle is 52 days (500/3,500 x 365). If the average owed by debtors is R400m and turnover is R5bn, then debtor days are 29 (400/5,000 x 365). Lastly, if the average owed to creditors is R750m, then creditor days are 78 (750/3,500 x 365).

Ok… so what does that mean? On average it takes the firm 52 days to turn stock into sales, 29 days to collect cash from customers who used credit and 78 days before suppliers are paid for stock. Thus, the average length of the working capital cycle is just three days, i.e. 52 + 29 – 78. That’s the gap between cash leaving the business to pay for stock, and being received from customers. Three is very short – in an aerospace business, for example, it could be much higher (100 days or more), but still be fine.

The trick is to benchmark firms against their sector, then watch for sudden changes. If the working capital cycle gets longer – perhaps because unsold stock levels are rising, or customers are taking longer to pay, a balance sheet can quickly weaken.

3. Low impairments

In the good times, acquisitive firms snap up rivals using cheap debt to finance deals. Whenever a premium over and above net assets is paid for a rival, an asset called “goodwill” appears on the predator’s balance sheet. For example, if a firm pays R2bn for a rival, using R1bn in cash and R1bn in new loans and the target has net assets worth R1.4bn, then goodwill is R600m (R2bn – R1.4bn). This represents a payment for intangible assets, such as the target’s reputation, market share or key staff.

Here’s the rub. A firm with lots of goodwill on its balance sheet has usually been very acquisitive. Purchases made during a bull run often turn out to have been expensive once the market weakens. The result is asset write-downs or “impairments”. When these are large or recurring, they’re another sign of future balance-sheet weakness. A “goodwill and other intangible fixed assets note” will tell you all about them.

4. Few hidden surprises

Failed firms, such as energy giant Enron, are often brought down by what’s hidden off the balance sheet.

The problem arises because accounting rules don’t require firms to record all of their risks on the face of the balance sheet. Uncertain obligations – perhaps to settle litigation claims – can be described in a “contingent liabilities” note instead. Also, relationships with “connected” parties – loans to directors, for example – may not be clear from reading the balance sheet, but show up in a “related party transaction” note.

Finally, major spending the board may have authorised, but not committed funds to yet, often shows up in a short “capital commitments” note. So it’s worth flicking to the back of the accounts to see what’s in these notes to ensure the firm isn’t at risk from big hidden liabilities.

Good investing,
 
Tim Bennett
For the Investment Academy

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